SINGAPORE : The ongoing El Niño event is strengthening rapidly and could become one of the most intense recorded since at least 1950, raising the likelihood of major shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns across different parts of the world.

In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update issued on October 8, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño is expected to strengthen further before reaching its peak around December 2026.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said forecasts indicate a probability approaching 100 per cent that El Niño will persist through February 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest events observed since at least 1950.

Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the region used to measure El Niño through the Niño 3.4 index, are forecast to average around 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal during October to December.

According to WMO, this would be the highest seasonal Niño 3.4 anomaly since observations began and would exceed the previous record of around 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.

The anomaly had already risen from around 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June to 2.5 degrees Celsius in August, pointing to the rapid strengthening of the event.

WMO said a very strong El Niño can alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the risk of drought, flooding and extreme heat in different regions. However, its effects differ considerably from one country and season to another.

WMO forecasts indicate that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to peak in October before weakening, with an average anomaly of around +0.5 degrees Celsius during October to December. The Indian Ocean Dipole can influence rainfall patterns across countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.

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