Muscat – The assessment came as the IMF mission team concluded preliminary meetings with Omani authorities under the 2025 Article IV consultations. The discussions focused on recent economic, fiscal, and monetary policies and developments, as well as progress made in structural reforms.

The IMF commended the continued growth of the Omani economy, with real GDP growth reaching 1.7 percent in 2024, compared to 1.2 percent in 2023. This growth is driven primarily by the strong performance of non-oil sectors, particularly manufacturing, logistics, tourism, and renewable energy.
Growth is expected to accelerate to 2.4 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2026, as a result of the gradual lifting of compliance with the OPEC+ oil production ceilings and continued economic diversification efforts. Inflationary pressures are also being significantly contained, recording 0.9 percent year-on-year during the first four months of 2025.

The Fund noted the prudent fiscal approach pursued by the Sultanate of Oman’s government, achieving a fiscal surplus of 3.3 percent of GDP in 2024, despite increased investment in infrastructure and basic public services. This surplus is expected to decline to an average of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2025 and 2026, due to lower oil prices, with the possibility of a return to improvement in the medium term.

The Fund also noted a decline in the public debt ratio to 35.5 percent of GDP in 2024, while commending the government’s commitment to continuing financial reforms and investing in priority sectors, along with the progress made in strengthening the governance of government companies, led by the Oman Investment Authority.

The IMF affirmed the strength of the Omani banking sector, thanks to high asset quality, adequate capital and liquidity ratios, and continued profitability. It also noted continued growth in credit to the private sector, driven by increased deposits and continued positive net foreign assets.

The Fund welcomed the progress made by the Central Bank of Oman in strengthening the liquidity management framework, along with other initiatives to develop the financial sector, expand access to financing, and enhance financial inclusion.

The external sector also performed positively, with the current account balance recording a surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP in 2024. Although it is expected to temporarily shift to a moderate deficit in 2025-2026, due to lower oil prices and slower growth in non-oil exports, the external balance is likely to return to surplus with the gradual increase in oil production.

The Fund also commended Oman’s tireless efforts to implement structural reforms, most notably the modernisation of the tax system by the Tax Authority, and the operational success of the Future Fund in mobilising private capital, in addition to efforts to develop the renewable energy sector, including investments in green hydrogen. The Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) is expected to enhance these gains to accelerate the process of economic diversification within the framework of Oman Vision 2040.
The Central Bank of Oman expressed its appreciation for the positive assessment of the International Monetary Fund’s experts and affirmed its commitment to maintaining financial stability, strengthening the resilience of the banking sector, and supporting the Sultanate of Oman’s vision for a diversified and sustainable economy.