DUBAI : The Middle East will require 3,830 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years as air travel in the region more than doubles, Airbus said on Wednesday, citing fleet expansion, rising incomes and large-scale investment in aviation infrastructure.

In its latest Global Market Forecast, the European planemaker said it expects the region to need 2,160 single-aisle aircraft and 1,670 widebody jets by 2045.

Passenger traffic to, from and within the Middle East is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.7% over the period, more than doubling by 2045.

“The Middle East is one of the world’s most dynamic aviation markets with regional carriers demonstrating operational resilience despite geopolitical volatility,” said Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus Africa and Middle East.

“Driven by demographic expansion, rising prosperity, and major infrastructure investment, airlines are expanding and modernising their fleets while guiding the transition toward more efficient and sustainable air transport.”

Airbus said existing Middle East large single-aisle order backlogs already represent about 45% of the region’s projected demand over the next two decades.

Growth is expected to be supported by rising disposable incomes, urbanisation and expansion of the middle class. Airbus forecasts the middle-class population in the markets covered by its regional outlook to increase by 240 million to 620 million by 2045.

The propensity to travel is also expected to rise sharply. In Saudi Arabia, annual trips per capita are forecast to increase from 1.6 in 2025 to 4.0 by 2045, while in the United Arab Emirates the figure is projected to rise from 3.1 to 6.5 over the same period.

Airbus said multi-billion-dollar investments in airlines, airports and large development projects were reshaping the region’s aviation landscape and creating new connectivity hubs.

Fleet modernisation will also accelerate. Airbus expects new-generation aircraft to account for 97% of the Middle East fleet by 2035, up from 45% in 2025, which it said would improve fuel efficiency and operating performance while reducing emissions.

The company also expects the Middle East to play a growing role in sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, as governments, airlines and other industry stakeholders invest in developing future production capacity.

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