TOKYO: The panic, once dismissed as superstition, has been reignited by real seismic activity in the Tokara Islands and new findings in the volatile Nankai Trough.
A manga published in 2021, The Future I Saw by Ryo Tatsuki—dubbed Japan’s “Baba Vanga”—has resurfaced in public discourse, forecasting an unprecedented underwater disaster on July 5. Tatsuki, who previously predicted the 1995 Kobe earthquake and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, warned in her comic of a deep-sea crack opening between Japan and the Philippines, triggering waves three times larger than those of 2011.
Adding to the eerie timing, a magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck Japan’s Tokara Islands on July 3, intensifying fears just days ahead of the date. Since June 21, over 900 quakes have rattled the Tokara island chain—seven of which are inhabited—leaving residents sleep-deprived and on edge.
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Seismic activity in the region had peaked at 183 quakes on June 23 before dipping, only to rise again with 98 quakes recorded on June 29. While no major damage has been reported, authorities have urged residents to remain prepared for evacuation.
Meanwhile, scientists point to slow-slip earthquakes detected in the Nankai Trough—an ominous sign given Japan’s history of “megaquakes” in the region. The last such quake occurred in 1946, and experts estimate there is now an 82% chance of another occurring in the next 30 years, up from previous projections of 75%.
Should such a quake strike, it could result in up to 298,000 deaths and economic losses nearing $2 trillion, according to the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. The government has called for renewed national preparedness amid mounting geological warnings.
Japan, situated on the Pacific Ring of Fire, experiences around 1,500 tremors annually, accounting for nearly 18% of the world’s earthquakes. While most are minor, the nation remains haunted by disasters like the 2011 tsunami that killed over 18,000 people and led to the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.
Holiday bookings to Japan have reportedly declined, as the viral manga prophecy fuels concern abroad. While experts reiterate that precise earthquake prediction remains scientifically impossible, the convergence of a fictional forecast and real-time tremors has left Japan—and much of Asia—holding its breath.
