Muscat: The Opec+ alliance — led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — agreed to boost oil production by 548,000 barrels per day for August 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but significantly exceeds the earlier monthly hikes of 411,000 barrels in May, June, and July.
The decision reflects “a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals,” according to Opec’s official statement released on Saturday. The group reaffirmed its strategy to gradually and flexibly return 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary production cuts agreed in December 2024, beginning in April 2025 and continuing through September 2026.
The organization, however, emphasized its flexibility — noting the pace of increases could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. Opec+ is set to meet again on August 3 to decide production levels for September.
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The oil market has been anything but stable in 2025. While Brent crude peaked above $82 per barrel in mid-January and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) touched nearly $79, prices have since slumped. On Friday, Brent closed at $68.30 per barrel and WTI at $66.50 — both marginally lower for the day but modestly higher than the previous week.
Geopolitical tensions and economic pressures have underpinned this volatility. A 12-day war between Israel and Iran temporarily spiked prices by over 13 percent, but gains were short-lived. Meanwhile, sluggish growth in China and a hawkish trade stance by U.S. President Donald Trump have weighed heavily on global demand.
Trump’s push to impose tariffs of up to 30 percent on imports from select countries has rattled markets. A 90-day pause on higher rates ends on July 9, with official notices expected to be sent to 10 countries at a time. These moves have sparked fears of a broader slowdown in global trade and fuel demand.
Despite this, Opec+ is pressing forward. Since March, the bloc has been unwinding its voluntary cuts at a faster pace, adding around 138,000 bpd each month. The production curbs — agreed in late 2023 — were repeatedly delayed amid oversupply concerns.
Energy analysts, however, believe the market has largely priced in the latest Opec+ increase with the balances showing a heavily undersupplied market for August, emphasized Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy.
